“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”  - Warren Buffett

Project Profit Rates

There have been a total 2,300
ICOs to date. Of those,
∑ = 65
or
∑ = 2.80
% have resulted in gains relative to the ICO token price, and the other
∑ = 97.19
% have resulted in partial or complete losses to investors.
It is expected that this percentage will increase given the increasing amount of lower quality ICOs being released.


ICOs Completed per Month by ICO Nerd Score

The number of ICOs executed per month has increased at an average rate of
∑ = -1.14
% for the last 12 months. For the month of October alone there were
∑ = 157
ICOs completed, a decrease of
∑ = -29
% compared to September with
∑ = 223
ICOs completed.

ICOs with scores below 60 pts keep increasing, reaching
∑ = 94
% of ICOs launched for the month of October. ICOs with 61-80 pts continue to be around
∑ = 5
% of the ICOs, and ICOs with scores above 80 pts remain relatively static at around
∑ = 0.0
% (
∑ = 0
ICO). Investors need to be wary of the increasing number of low quality projects (ICOs with scores below 60 pts).

Average ROI (%) by ICO Nerd Score

The ICO Nerd Score is a point value between 0 and 100 that predicts the profitability of an ICO. It is derived from the historical performance of every ICO ever attempted plus proprietary ICO Nerd metrics. An ICO with score of 60 points or greater is predicted to return a profit.

Millions (USD) Raised by ICOs per Month

The total amount raised by ICOs has increased at an average monthly rate of
∑ = -3.54
% for the last year. ICOs raised $
∑ = 0.03
Billion for the month of September alone (October results are being fetched and should be available by December).

In July, August and September ICOs raised a total of $
∑ = 0.55
Billion, an decrease of
∑ = -79.96
% compared to the $
∑ = 2.75
Billion raised in the three months prior; primarily attributable to the continued market sell-off in Q3 as well as the increasing government regulations around launching and participating in ICOs.

These stats serve as indicators of a decreasing hype to participate in ICOs as well as smarter investments being made by ICO participants. Higher quality ICOs typically see the majority of the total amount raised per month.

Count of Projects/Tokens by Stage

The following bar graph shows the amount of projects/tokens by stage. The average length of a pre-sale is about
∑ = 3.42
weeks. After a pre-sale, projects usually take
∑ = 3.12
more weeks to launch their ICO, which run on average for about
∑ = 4.75
weeks. ICOs that raise 100% of their hardcap usually do so in about 5 days.

A token starts trading around
∑ = 6.29
weeks after the ICO is closed. Meaning that it takes on average
∑ = 17.58
weeks or about
∑ = 4.40
months for pre-sale investors to attain liquidity for their tokens purchased.

The process flow below shows how the different stages are connected with one another. The straight line indicates that a stage is bounded to the next one, while the dotted line indicates variability or that the next stage is not certain. As shown below, after a Pre-Sale ends, the project would move on to run it's ICO contingent on whether the Soft Cap was reached. In the same way, after an ICO closes, the token would begin trading on major exchanges, or it could fail (or be a scam) and never hit the exchanges.
ICO/Token Life Cycle

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