Real-Time Scoring Process
ICO Nerd’s scores are calculated on top of the most robust and comprehensive publicly available ICO database in existence.
Each project is scored on a scale of 1-100 to help you determine which tokens have the highest ROI potential in real time.
ICO Nerd’s scoring algorithm has been developed through multiple regression analysis, using historical data from the 1,600+ projects that ran ICOs and that have either failed or have their tokens trading on major exchanges. Based off of this ever-growing number of tokens, ICO Nerd has identified which metrics are correlated to ROI as well as how heavily to weight each metric.
The scoring algorithm is continuously improving with the inputs of new ICO data, and a machine-learning model is currently in development.
The following metrics are used to score each project.
Please note that the metrics and the weight assigned to each metric depends on the stage of the project. Before and during an ICO, the “Amount Raised (%)” is not used to calculate the score because this metric is usually not available. The “Amount Raised (%)” metric is available and used after an ICO closes or the hardcap is reached.
The hardcap is the maximum amount of capital aimed to be raised during an ICO. This is the team's estimate of how much money they'd need to develop and launch their project.
Projects seeking for relatively lower hardcaps (10 - 25 MM) usually perform better given that the hardcap is more attainable and realistic. Projects with higher hardcaps run a higher risk of not raising enough funds to complete the project.
The token distribution percentage is the total amount of tokens being sold during the ICO over the total amount of tokens that will be issued.
The token distribution gives an indication of the amount of tokens left for the team to be sold in the future. The tokens left are typically released in schedules into the market, decreasing the value of the token during each of these release cycles. Projects that have a higher token distribution percentage (65% or higher) typically see better ROIs because there is a smaller percentage of tokens being released into the market.
The bonus percentage is the maximum discount that will be given during the Pre-sale or ICO. Giving high bonuses is a poor selling strategy to try to get investors. Successful projects give low (10%) or no bonuses at all.
The social statistics are based on availability and involve the following:
- Twitter follower count
- Telegram group member count
- Website's global Alexa rank
- YouTube video pitch's reach (views count) and sentiment (video likes)
A project's social media accounts help gain an understanding of the community and sentiment built around the project. A large community and a positive sentiment give a project higher chances of adoption and usage.
The team score is based on the following factors:
- Capacity to execute: Does the CEO and other executives have previous experience leading projects and succeeding?
- Team's Relevant Experience: Does the CTO or other team members have the skillset and experience necessary to develop blockchain applications or Dapps?
- Right Connections: Does the team or is advisory board connected to customer leads or potential partners to reach their respective target market?
The product score is based on the following factors:
- Value Proposition: is the product addressing the main pain points of the project’s target market?
- Minimum viable product (MVP) availability: Is there an MVP available? If so, what’s the stage of development (Alpha, Beta, or Production)?
- Blockchain fit: Is Blockchain technology actually needed to create or make this product better than the alternatives?
- Token's utility: Is the creation of a token necessary for the product to exist? Is the token needed to use the product?
- Token’s Velocity: Timeline between obtaining and selling the tokens. Is there an incentive to hold the tokens (low velocity) or to sell them right away (high velocity)?
The market score is based on the following factors:
- Industry growth forecast: Is the industry a multi-billion dollar industry and is it expected to grow in the next few years?
- Level of competition: Are there any big players in the market (competitors with a majority or large percentage of the market)? Many competitors is not necessarily a problem as long as these competitors have not capitalized on a large percentage of the market.
- Addressable target market: Is there a defined target market (the target market should be very specific rather than broad)? Is the target market reachable based on demographics and psychographics? If so, is the target market large enough to use and sustain the product?
- Partnerships developed: Does the project have any major partnerships that would help reach the target market?
Know Your Customer (KYC) and Whitelisting are processes set by some ICOs to effectively comply with regulations and standard security practices. KYC verifies the identity of the investors while whitelisting identifies a limited group of people to participate in an ICO, allowing only verified individuals to participate. Not having these processes in place serve as red-flags, indicating that a project might not be complying with regulations in its jurisdiction or with standard security practices.
Restricting US and Chinese Citizens from participating in an ICO usually results in a shorter timeframe for the project’s token to be listed exchanges. This happens because the projects needs to show exchanges whether they complied with the U.S. SEC laws and whether they banned Chinese Citizens from participating.
China has banned ICOs for Chinese citizens, while the US requires that projects comply with securities laws by the SEC if they are allowing US citizens to participate in their ICO. Projects save time and resources by simply not allowing US citizens so that they don’t have to comply with the SEC laws.
ERC-20 compatible wallets have become the most commonly used wallets to participate in ICOs. There is a higher likelihood to see a larger community and more investors’ around ERC-20 tokens given that they do not need to adopt a new wallet on a different ecosystem.
Ethereum Request for Comment (ERC) number 20 is a request by the Ethereum ecosystem requiring tokens in the network to implement and adhere to a set of rules. Implementing these set of rules allows project developers to specify how the new issued tokens will be transferred, accessed, approved, etc. meaning that developers do not need to recreate a blockchain ecosystem but simply use Ethereum’s by adhering to these rules.
The amount raised (%) is the amount raised during the ICO divided by the hardcap (amount aimed to be raised during the ICO).
This metric serves as an indicator of the level of support for the project and demand for the token. Projects that raise 100% of their hardcap show higher levels of support. The faster the hardcap is reached also indicates the level of demand from investors/users to acquire the token.
This metric is measured and used by the scoring algorithm only after an ICO ends or the hardcap is reached.
The ICO Nerd – Roland C. Boburg
Roland C. Boburg is the founder and creator of ICO Nerd. Roland began investing in cryptoassets in 2014, started participating in ICOs in late 2016, and he grew his portfolio by 40x in 2017 alone.
Despite his remarkable success, Roland was always frustrated by the missed investment opportunities caused by incosistent and dated ICO data, and biased reviews. He knew what he and his fellow investors really needed was a trustworthy ICO analytics tool, and he knew just the Nerd for the job.
As a Data & Analytics consultant for Financial Services at Ernst & Young, Roland has specialized in Smart Data Lakes, Big Data, Machine Learning, and Real-Time Analytics, all of which perfectly equipped him to create the most robust ICO analytics tool available to the public.
Some of Roland’s past investments (ICOs only) include the following:
|ico_id||top_pick||Project||Token Symbol||Score||Days after ICO End||ICO End Time||ICO Price/Token ($)||Current Price/Token ($)||ROI USD(%)||ICO Price/Token (ETH)||Current Price/Token (ETH)||ROI ETH(%)|
|1,096||1||Theta Token||THETA||87.10||343||2018-02-08 00:00:00||0.150000||0.046000||-69||0.000162||0.000401||147|
|1,096||1||Theta Token||THETA||87.10||343||2018-02-08 00:00:00||0.150000||0.047300||-68||0.000162||0.000389||140|
|335||1||Kyber Network||KNC||87.10||489||2017-09-15 06:00:00||0.380000||0.156400||-59||0.001279||0.001231||-4|